Click to View PDF
Week in Review
Equity Markets:
A Friday sell-off was sparked by President Donald Trump when he threatened an additional 100% tariff on all imports from China, set to begin on November 1. Those comments led to the sharpest market drop since the post-‘Liberation Day’ launch of our new tariff regime last April, culminating in their worst week since last May.[1]
The S&P 500 declined -2.41% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average came down (-2.70%) and the Nasdaq gave up (-2.53%).[2] The sell-off ended a 33-trading-day streak of relative stability for the S&P 500, one in which it hadn’t moved by 1%, either to the upside or to the downside. That was the index’s longest period without such movement since January 2020.[3]
Fixed Income Markets:
Bonds largely rose in value last week, reflecting broader concerns over geopolitical dysfunction and instability. Among these concerns are US-China trade tensions; the continued federal government shutdown, now into its second week; and the surprise resignation of the French Prime Minister.[4]
Yields broadly came down last week, recognizing growing economic risks. The 10-year Treasury saw its yields decrease by 9 basis points. Similarly, Municipal bonds recognized 4 basis points shed from theirs. Investment-Grade Corporate bonds recognized yield declines of 47 basis points while High-Yield Corporates saw theirs come down 98 basis points.[5]
Economic Updates:
Minutes were released from the Federal Reserve’s September meeting. The consensus reading is that the Fed’s Open Market Committee remains focused on two more interest rate cuts this year: one at the end of October, and the other in December. Noteworthy is the Fed’s consideration of risks to the labor market, and recognition that those risks would likely increase should no more cuts take place this year.[6]
Last week also saw the spot price for Gold and Silver hitting all-time highs. Gold surpassed $4,000/ounce while Silver prices hit $50/ounce. This demonstrates growing demand for safety and value preservation.
Looking Ahead
Equity Markets:
Earnings Season begins again this upcoming week, with the Big Banks leading the announcements. Once more, investors will see if their high valuations on the stock markets are consistent with their actual growth. The Forward Price/Earnings Ratio on the S&P 500 currently stands at 22.8, indicating premium pricing.[7]
The resumption of aggressive trade & tariff rhetoric by the President portends to rising risks of trade instabilities, coming just before the Holiday Retail Shopping Season. Stock market investors should brace for potential volatility, all the while ensuring that their long-term investment objectives match their current financial plans.
Fixed Income Market:
Bonds have benefitted from the broader volatility in the US economy, including both the federal government shutdown and our trade war with China. Investors are attracted to bonds as a “safe haven” to retain value and generate income while uncertainty pervades.[8]
Global volatilities – including French political drama, German industrial underperformance, new Chinese licensing requirements for rare earth exports, and a new government in Japan – further demand for US-based bonds. Investors should consider US Treasurys, Municipals, and Corporates, dependent on their financial needs.
Economic Updates:
President Trump’s threatened 100% additional tariffs on all Chinese imports represent a material upside risk to inflation and a downside risk to GDP growth. Perhaps that’s why he followed up those comments with statements posted online Sunday evening in which he backed down from his threatened new tariffs.
Multiple economic metrics are scheduled to be announced this week, including the Consumer Price Index and the Producer Price Index. However, since the federal government shutdown continues, we should anticipate that those data points generated by the government may not be published on time.
Sources:
1) Seeking Alpha
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4829285-what-moved-markets-this-week
2) JP Morgan Asset Management
3) CNBC
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/08/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
4) LPL Financial
https://www.lpl.com/research/blog/weekly-market-performance-october-10-2025.html
5) Nuveen, LLC
6) John Hancock Investment Management, LLC
https://www.jhinvestments.com/weekly-market-recap#fund-industry-overview
7) FactSet Research, Inc.
8) T. Rowe Price Investment Services, Inc.
https://www.troweprice.com/personal-investing/resources/insights/global-markets-weekly-update.html
Important Disclosures:
Investment Advisory Services offered through Krilogy®, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Please review all prospectuses and Krilogy’s Form ADV 2A carefully prior to investing. This is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation of an offer to buy the securities described herein. An offering is made only by a prospectus to individuals who meet minimum suitability requirements.
All expressions of opinion are subject to change. This information is distributed for educational purposes only, and it is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, recommendation, or endorsement of any particular security, products, or services.
Diversification does not eliminate the risk of market loss. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Investors should understand the risks involved of owning investments, including interest rate risk, credit risk and market risk. Investment risks include loss of principal and fluctuating value. There is no guarantee an investing strategy will be successful. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment; therefore, their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. The S&P data is provided by Standard & Poor’s Index Services Group.
Services and products offered through Krilogy® are not insured and may lose value. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial advisor and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein.
